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Insightful articles and strategies for navigating change, enhancing resilience, and driving impactful decisions.

Category: Geopolitics

Latest articles

Managing Russia Without Breaking It – The Hidden Constraint in U.S. Strategy

Richard Martin April 8, 2026 No Comments

Why has U.S. policy toward Russia seemed so inconsistent for over 30 years? Integration, reset, sanctions, escalation, hesitation, negotiation… Bush, Clinton, Obama, Trump, Biden all look different on the surface. But beneath it, there is a hard constraint shaping every decision: Washington does not want Russia to win.
But it also cannot afford for Russia to collapse. Once you factor in nuclear risk, European security, and China’s rise, the pattern starts to make sense.

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Action as Evidence: A Discipline for Strategic Analysis

Richard Martin March 23, 2026 No Comments

Most media and political analysis of strategy and campaigns gets it backwards. It starts with narratives and then looks for facts to support them, but serious strategic analysis begins with action. What states and actors actually do under constraint, at cost, and over time provides far stronger evidence than what they say. Statements can mislead, but sustained, coordinated behaviour reveals structure, intent, and direction. This short piece outlines a disciplined way to infer strategy from what is real rather than what is said.

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Planning Under Constraint: Inferring Strategy in the Iran War Through ISW Reporting

Richard Martin March 23, 2026 No Comments

War rarely looks coherent from the outside. In this piece, I analyze the US–Israel campaign against Iran through ISW reporting, not by taking statements at face value, but by reconstructing strategy from observable action. The result: a campaign that is structured, cumulative, and adaptive, operating under real political and military constraints, not chaos. If you want to understand how strategy actually unfolds in war (and why it often looks ambiguous in real time), this is for you.

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Globalization as Exception

Richard Martin March 20, 2026 No Comments

Deep globalization is historically exceptional rather than normal. Periods of extensive international economic integration appear only when political leaders judge the risk of great power conflict to be sufficiently low to allow economic systems organized primarily for efficiency rather than security. When those judgments change, governments reorganize economic arrangements around industrial capacity, resource access, technological leadership, and reliable alliances.

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Trump’s Rhetoric, America’s Reality

Richard Martin March 20, 2026 No Comments

Trump’s rhetoric often suggests rupture, but the observable actions of the United States tell a different story. Alliances remain intact, military operations continue, and the defence-industrial base stays deeply integrated. The gap between what is said and what is done raises a more important question: what is actually changing, and what is simply noise? I explore this distinction in my latest article and would be interested in where you agree or disagree.

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The Unbound Superpower and the Return of Hard Strategy

Richard Martin January 17, 2026 No Comments

Why does U.S. foreign policy feel chaotic yet remain strangely consistent? This essay looks past rhetoric and electoral cycles to identify the structural forces that shape American action over time. It is a guide to understanding continuity where most see disruption.

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The Trump Doctrine Reconsidered—A Strategic Assessment

Richard Martin January 17, 2026 No Comments

This essay takes a second look at the Trump Doctrine, not to defend it or condemn it, but to make it intelligible. By separating rhetoric from action, it explores how ambiguity and restraint have been used to preserve U.S. freedom of action in a rapidly shifting geopolitical environment.

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The Burden and the Withdrawal – The American Strategic Revolution

Richard Martin December 8, 2025 No Comments

The United States is undergoing a profound strategic shift from burden-bearing superpower to burden-resisting and increasingly unbound power. Driven by resentment over uneven alliances, faith in geographic insulation, and a desire for maximum freedom of action, America is redefining its role in the world. This transformation destabilizes the global order it once sustained and forces allies, especially in Europe, to confront a new reality: the United States will no longer carry the same burdens it once willingly accepted. Understanding this shift is essential for grasping the future of alliances, global security, and American power.

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Europe’s New Strategic Frontier – The EU, the Eastern Flank, and the Rise of Poland

Richard Martin December 7, 2025 No Comments

Europe is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from a post-Cold War mindset to a new hard security reality. The eastern and northern front-line states are now playing a crucial role in defining the continent’s strategic future.

Poland’s rise, alongside the ongoing defence of Ukraine, is reshaping the balance of power within Europe. This shift highlights the evolving dynamics of security and the importance of these nations in the broader geopolitical landscape.

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The Doctrine of Friction: Power Grids and the Illusion of Optimization

Richard Martin September 30, 2025 No Comments

Modern grids now run on software as much as steel. Virtual inertia and digital controls make them efficient but also fragile. History shows what happens when systems are tuned too tightly: supply chains snap and reactors fail. The military mindset offers a clear lesson: assume friction, assume failure, and build resilience first.

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Recent articles

  • 08 Apr 2026 Geopolitics
    Managing Russia Without Breaking It – The Hidden Constraint in U.S. Strategy
  • 23 Mar 2026 Geopolitics
    Action as Evidence: A Discipline for Strategic Analysis
  • 23 Mar 2026 Geopolitics
    Planning Under Constraint: Inferring Strategy in the Iran War Through ISW Reporting
  • 20 Mar 2026 Economics
    Globalization as Exception
  • 20 Mar 2026 Geopolitics
    Trump’s Rhetoric, America’s Reality

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Latest Articles

  • Managing Russia Without Breaking It – The Hidden Constraint in U.S. Strategy
  • Action as Evidence: A Discipline for Strategic Analysis
  • Planning Under Constraint: Inferring Strategy in the Iran War Through ISW Reporting

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