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Insightful articles and strategies for navigating change, enhancing resilience, and driving impactful decisions.

Category: History

Latest articles

Managing Russia Without Breaking It – The Hidden Constraint in U.S. Strategy

Richard Martin April 8, 2026 No Comments

Why has U.S. policy toward Russia seemed so inconsistent for over 30 years? Integration, reset, sanctions, escalation, hesitation, negotiation… Bush, Clinton, Obama, Trump, Biden all look different on the surface. But beneath it, there is a hard constraint shaping every decision: Washington does not want Russia to win.
But it also cannot afford for Russia to collapse. Once you factor in nuclear risk, European security, and China’s rise, the pattern starts to make sense.

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Globalization as Exception

Richard Martin March 20, 2026 No Comments

Deep globalization is historically exceptional rather than normal. Periods of extensive international economic integration appear only when political leaders judge the risk of great power conflict to be sufficiently low to allow economic systems organized primarily for efficiency rather than security. When those judgments change, governments reorganize economic arrangements around industrial capacity, resource access, technological leadership, and reliable alliances.

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The Burden and the Withdrawal – The American Strategic Revolution

Richard Martin December 8, 2025 No Comments

The United States is undergoing a profound strategic shift from burden-bearing superpower to burden-resisting and increasingly unbound power. Driven by resentment over uneven alliances, faith in geographic insulation, and a desire for maximum freedom of action, America is redefining its role in the world. This transformation destabilizes the global order it once sustained and forces allies, especially in Europe, to confront a new reality: the United States will no longer carry the same burdens it once willingly accepted. Understanding this shift is essential for grasping the future of alliances, global security, and American power.

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Europe’s New Strategic Frontier – The EU, the Eastern Flank, and the Rise of Poland

Richard Martin December 7, 2025 No Comments

Europe is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from a post-Cold War mindset to a new hard security reality. The eastern and northern front-line states are now playing a crucial role in defining the continent’s strategic future.

Poland’s rise, alongside the ongoing defence of Ukraine, is reshaping the balance of power within Europe. This shift highlights the evolving dynamics of security and the importance of these nations in the broader geopolitical landscape.

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The Doctrine of Friction: Power Grids and the Illusion of Optimization

Richard Martin September 30, 2025 No Comments

Modern grids now run on software as much as steel. Virtual inertia and digital controls make them efficient but also fragile. History shows what happens when systems are tuned too tightly: supply chains snap and reactors fail. The military mindset offers a clear lesson: assume friction, assume failure, and build resilience first.

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Election of Trump is about to cause a major storm in China.

Judging Strategy Ex Ante: Vietnam, U.S. Grand Strategy, and the Lessons of Context (1955–1965)

Richard Martin August 29, 2025 No Comments

The Vietnam War is still argued over as either unnecessary or strategically successful, often using the very same outcomes as evidence. That shows why hindsight cannot settle the issue. Strategy has to be judged ex ante, by what leaders knew, feared, and believed at the time. Between 1955 and 1965, U.S. leaders saw Vietnam not in isolation but as part of a chain leading from Indochina to ASEAN, Indonesia, Japan, and ultimately the global order. My new essay sets out eight principles for analysing strategy in this way, using Vietnam as a case study with lessons that remain relevant today.

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Sovereign and Parasovereign Orders—Hindrance as Overlay, Action as the Ground

Richard Martin August 26, 2025 No Comments

Human life is action: people speak, trade, and associate by nature. Sovereign orders overlay hindrance through taxation, censorship, and control, while parasovereign orders preserve continuity when overreach occurs. The central tension today is between action itself and the hindrance imposed upon it.

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The Burden of Defence: From Machiavelli to Seven Samurai to Eugene Sledge

Richard Martin August 25, 2025 No Comments

From Machiavelli’s citizen militia, to Kikuchiyo’s lesson in Seven Samurai, to Eugene Sledge’s grim testimony of Okinawa, one truth endures: a land good enough to live in is also good enough to defend. Defence cannot be outsourced. It must be owned by the people themselves.

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Visually striking representation of a futuristic and dynamic landscape, embodying themes of strategic vision, proactive risk management, and the balance between uncertainty and opportunity.

Too Soon to Tell: On the Premature Concern Over LLMs and the Mind

Richard Martin July 22, 2025 No Comments

In recent weeks, concerns have surged that tools like ChatGPT may be dulling our minds and eroding critical thought. A new MIT study claims that using large language models (LLMs) correlates with reduced brain activity and impaired recall. However, these conclusions are extremely premature, based on a small sample and limited methodology. History shows us that technology often inspires anxiety, from the fears surrounding television to the written word itself. As we navigate this new landscape, it’s crucial to approach these changes with inquiry rather than alarmism. The story of LLMs and the mind is just beginning—let’s explore it together.

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Legibility and Sovereignty: The Politics of Visibility in a Parasovereign Age

Richard Martin July 17, 2025 No Comments

Sovereignty depends on legibility—the ability to make people, land, and activity visible, countable, and governable, as James C. Scott argues in Seeing Like a State. But this need to simplify and standardize produces its own resistance: parasovereign systems, both ancient and engineered, often thrive by remaining deliberately illegible. From kinship networks and mutual aid to Bitcoin and Tor, these orders do not reject rules—they redesign constraint outside the reach of centralized authority. In an age of expanding surveillance and institutional fragility, the real strategic question is no longer just who rules, but what can be seen, and by whom.

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Recent articles

  • 08 Apr 2026 Geopolitics
    Managing Russia Without Breaking It – The Hidden Constraint in U.S. Strategy
  • 23 Mar 2026 Geopolitics
    Action as Evidence: A Discipline for Strategic Analysis
  • 23 Mar 2026 Geopolitics
    Planning Under Constraint: Inferring Strategy in the Iran War Through ISW Reporting
  • 20 Mar 2026 Economics
    Globalization as Exception
  • 20 Mar 2026 Geopolitics
    Trump’s Rhetoric, America’s Reality

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Latest Articles

  • Managing Russia Without Breaking It – The Hidden Constraint in U.S. Strategy
  • Action as Evidence: A Discipline for Strategic Analysis
  • Planning Under Constraint: Inferring Strategy in the Iran War Through ISW Reporting

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