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Effective Deterrence and Signalling

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  • Richard Martin
  • February 19, 2024
  • 5:54 pm
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Richard Martin

Richard Martin empowers leaders to outmaneuver uncertainty and drive change through strategic insight and transformative thinking.
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by Richard Martin

All through the period since September 2021 when the US became convinced that Russia was preparing to attack Ukraine, there has been consistent strategic signalling by the US, UK, and NATO, including revealing locations of carrier battle groups, SSBNs and SSGNs (the latter things never done during the Cold War), surveillance flights near the Russian borders, continued training of Ukrainian forces, as well as providing financial, economic, and military assistance by NATO and other like-minded countries. These display capabilities and intentions clearly to the Kremlin and the Russian high command.

Every Russian threat to “escalate” has been countered with clear signalling that has deterred the Russians from doing anything even more stupid. The Ukrainians have been using a version of the ATACMS and Storm Shadows since last fall, so any fears of angering Putin have been overtaken by events. I have heard of a concern by some within the Biden administration that providing the newer longer range versions of ATACMS could encourage the Ukrainians to use them against targets in Russia. I think that’s bogus, because the US is already providing targeting from space and air assets. The Russians know that already.

In any case, Ukraine has been blowing up oil installations and military targets all over Russia since early December, at the latest, using drones and covert attacks.

© 2024 Richard Martin


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Richard Martin, President of Alcera Consulting Inc.

Richard Martin

Richard Martin is the President of Alcera Consulting Inc., a strategic advisory firm collaborating with top-level leaders to provide strategic insight, navigate uncertainty, and drive transformative change, ensuring market dominance and excellence in public governance. He is the author of Brilliant Manoeuvres: How to Use Military Wisdom to Win Business Battles and the creator of the blog ExploitingChange.com. Richard is also the developer of Strategic Epistemology, a groundbreaking theory that focuses on winning the battle for minds in a world of conflict by dismantling opposing worldviews and ideologies through strategic narrative and archetypal awareness.

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