Most media and political analysis of strategy and campaigns gets it backwards. It starts with narratives and then looks for facts to support them, but serious strategic analysis begins with action. What states and actors actually do under constraint, at cost, and over time provides far stronger evidence than what they say. Statements can mislead, but sustained, coordinated behaviour reveals structure, intent, and direction. This short piece outlines a disciplined way to infer strategy from what is real rather than what is said.
